چکیده :

Today uninterrupted attempts have penetrated from economic growth to scientific field and have provided proper condition for empirical analyses. Yet, for limited potential in determining and explain economic growth phenomena and varieties of alternative criterion for effective components on this phenomena, it is essential to search in order to clarify effects of these variables. The experiences of states have shown that tourism boom and political instability can be effective factors on flourishing economic capacities and removing huge problems such as unemployment. In this study, first reliability of research variables including economic growth, the total energy consumption of the economy, interring exchange to country for tourism, index of political instability, left facilities of banks and credit institutions to private sectors during 1981 to 2011 were explored. Then in order to estimate independent variables on economics growth in long-term and short-term, long-term and short-term relationships and error correction test were estimated using ARDL econometric method and logarithmic linear function. The results of this study show that variables of bank facilities logarithm in long and short term have the most positive effectiveness level on dependent variable and political instability has expectable negative effectiveness and the total energy consumption of the economy also have the biggest descriptive coefficient for variable in long-term. On the other hand, classic hypotheses were confirmed and estimation space was standard. In addition, determining and mediated determining coefficients and Durbin-Watson statistics have the high descriptive power of the model, correct usage of variables, and errors independency, respectively.

کلید واژگان :

Exploring; Tourism; Political Instability; Economic Growth



ارزش ریالی : 500000 ریال
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