The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resource managers. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. Also Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water supply. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the potential climate change and its impacts on water resources is necessary. To predict the climate change based on General Circulation Models , the successful downscaling tool of LARS-WG is applied. This stochastic weather generator downscaled the climate change of Hashemabd synoptic station in the Golestan province of Iran by using the HADCM3 model and emission scenarios in the period of 2011-2040. real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of a LARS-WG Model for generating these parameters and direction of climate change. The results show increase in solar radiation and decrease in precipitation almost in all months, also not changing in minimum and maximum temperatures. The results show that, in general, LARS-WG model performance in meteorological variables modeling is appropriate and could advise the decision makers to take suitable actions in securing the water supply and it can be used to recover data station or to extend the data to the future period. Also it can be used in the assessment of future climate of province in a local scale.
کلید واژگان :Lars-WG, Downscaling, Meteorological Parameters, GCM
ارزش ریالی : 300000 ریال
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