Independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran’s National Security and Possible Scenarios

From 1991 to today, the debate on the independence of the Kurdistan region of Iraq has been one of the main crises in Iraq. Massoud Barzani, head of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, has set up a referendum on independence from the central government of Iraq on 25 September 2017 to reach Iraq’s goal, and has advanced Iraq to the brink of danger of separatism and civil war. In this paper, the author’s efforts are about providing a solid and scientific answer to the question of how the referendum on the independence of the Kurdish region of Iraq will affect the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? And what kind of scenarios can be expected for the future of the Kurdish region of Iraq? The findings of the paper, which are based on the theory of the Haug Miall Crisis Cycle Model, suggest that the historical background to this crisis was practically the Saddam’s Ba’athist regime in 1991, and the failure of the Iraqi government to lead the US-led coalition. The evolutionary stage of the crisis was due to the US invasion of Iraq and the lack of a powerful government and conflicts among Iraqi Arab groups, the emergence of ISIS and the opportunism of Iraq in post-Saddam developments. In the repression and civil wars, it is possible to point out the military challenges of the Kurds and the central government in relation to the Kirkuk issue and the geopolitical and economic issues of the Kurdistan region. Finally, the impact of the political and economic sanctions of the countries of the region such as Iran, Turkey and Iraq can be at the stage of mediation and mediation. International dissatisfaction, the death of Jalal Talabani, the internal challenges of Iraq included in the Kurdish climate. Finally, the authors plotted three major scenarios on the future of the Kurdish region of Iraq. The research method of this paper is based on the method of Futurology and the use of written and virtual resources.

Kurdistan region; Referendum; Michael brecher; Security crises; Islamic republic of Iran