Exploring the Technical and Fundamental Analysis Effectiveness Amount on Stock Price Prediction in Investing Firms

This research aims on identifying fundamental analysis effectiveness aspects and exploring their impacts on stock price prediction, and also exploring whether it has necessary ability of technical analysis on stock price prediction in investing firms. For this purpose, 4 elite investing firms with different investing abilities from 1387 to 1391 were selected. Fundamental analysis aspects consisting 3 aspects of “economic level”, “industry level” and “firm level” were evaluated by questionnaire. Questionnaires were distributed among 40 people as financial analysts and experts of 4 firms. In this research, to analysis fundamental data (simple linear regressions, standardized regression coefficient, correlation coefficient and) and to analyze technical analysis data, motive average (MA), weight motive average (WMA) and exponential motive average (EMA) were used. Research results have shown that among fundamental analysis aspects just firm level aspect has positive impact on stock price prediction in investing firms. Results achieved from stock rice prediction technical analysis for various firms with high and low capital indicate that weight motive average index is the best, and exponential motive average is the worst method to predict firms stock price predictions. Generally, it can be concluded from this research results that technical analysis indexes; especially, weight motive average has high validity ability to predict stock price in investing firms than fundamental analysis; therefore, using eight motive averages to predict stock price in investing firms, beside its using firm level aspect as the main fundamental analysis variable to predict stock price in investing firms, can have the best results.

Fundamental analysis, technical analysis, stock price prediction, investing firms