Survey the impact of macroeconomic variable on economic growth has always been the main top ic of economy in countries that has formed economic theories. In this regard, the present study has investigated the effects of macroeconomic variable dynamics and identified the business cycle behavior during 1992 to 2010 in Iran. Data has been collected from the World Bank and the research method is ARDL Markov switching model. Results show that Inflation and money supply in recession regime have a positive impact and in expansion regime have a negative impact on GDP. Exchange rate in both regimes has a n egative impact on GDP. Transition probability matrix indicates the economy is more likely to remain in recession. Graphs illustrate recession periods are more than expansion periods
کلید واژگان :Business Cycles, Expansion, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Markov Sw itching Model, R
ارزش ریالی : 300000 ریال
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