A comparative study of bankruptcy prediction models of Fulmer and Toffler in firms accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange

The recent bankruptcies of the mega-corporations worldwide and the fluctuations in Stock Exchange in Iran have created the need for instruments to measure the financial capabilities of the firms. Financial ratios are considered to be one of the tools to measure financial capabilities of the companies. Also several models are used to predict bankruptcy. The environmental changes and the exceeding competition between the entities have limited achieving the expected profit for them. Thus, the financial decision making has become more important compared with the past and has forced the mangers to use the advanced techniques in order to make benefit of the new controlling methods. This research is carried out to present the theoretical fundamentals of the research and compare the results of utilizing Falmer and Toffler models in order to predict the companies' bankruptcy. Thus, the data related to 90 firms accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange for the years between 2005 and 2010 were tested. To analyze the data, we used the non-parametric binomial statistical methods. The results showed that in predicting the firms' status with Wilcockson's statistical method, there is a meaningful difference between the results of the two models. Also, in forthcoming studied it was found out that Falmer's model acts more conservatively in bankruptcy prediction than Toffler model.

bankruptcy, Falmer's model, Toffler model, bankruptcy prediction