Investigating effective factors on oil price forecast

Oil price plays a significant role as one of the effective factors in the international economy due to its importance in the international markets, fundamental relation with economy of countries, and its strategic position among economic products. Oil price forecast is usually difficult; since various and several factors affect the market and world prices of oil. The price of crude oil in the past was determined by the organization of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC). But accompanied by increasing extraction fields of petroleum, forming oil exchanges and its future markets in the 1990, the role of OPEC in pricing crude oil directly has been declined. Today, the most important factor in determining oil price, like many of other commodities, is the supply and demand. Generally effective factors on the prices of crude oil can be divided into two groups of fundamental and non- fundamental factors. Fundamental factors effective on the price of crude oil include factors which are rooted in the oil industry and related to the issues of oil market directly; they finally affect the supply and demand of oil. Non-fundamental factors effective on the prices of crude oil include factors stem from out of oil industry; but they can affect prices of crude oil even more than fundamental factors conditionally.

forecast, crude oil price, fundamental factors, non-fundamental factors.